The Importance of Financial Forecasting

  • By Phil Talbot
  • 14 Aug, 2019

Forecasts aren't just for Weathermen

Sustained business growth doesn’t just happen overnight. It is usually planned and requires a great deal of hard work and preparation, detailed insights, and a full appreciation of the finances involved. By analysing the past and current state of your financial affairs, along with an insight into future plans, it is possible to create accurate and meaningful financial forecasts. These act as a real-time benchmark for the growth and financial health of your business. They can also be used to develop “What if” scenarios.

While this may seem obvious, many businesses either find it difficult to compile accurate financial forecasts or, even worse, disregard them altogether.

The aim of the model is to reflect how the finances of the business will look going forward based on the existing business as well as the plans and expectations for the business from the Senior Management. If the model is to be useful it must be based on assumptions that are reasonable and supported by a well thought out business plan that can be delivered. The outcomes from the model can only be as good as the inputs and the assumptions that it is based on.

 

Do you need a financial forecast?

Do you regularly face unanticipated cashflow shortages or lack confidence in your financial position? Does your business struggle to plan ahead? If these are questions that resonate with your business, then it’s time to act. It can also give you valuable insights into the way your business performed in the past and the way it will compare in the future. It ensures that difficult management decisions are built upon solid financial figures, without compromising the financial integrity of your organisation. Above all, it gives you peace of mind in the financial stability of your business.

Typically, the need for a forecast is usually triggered to support an immediate issue, such as securing funding either for some form of working capital need or planned capital expenditure. Whilst these examples are important as in these cases such a forecast may well be a requirement from a lender or grant funder in order to obtain the facility, having the ability to work through the implications of an investment decision, a marketing campaign or the employing of additional staff, enables forward planning based on some sort of informed decision.

A further consideration is that if a business is looking forward with an exit plan in mind then a well thought out forecast can be a key tool in underpinning the value of the business. If prepared in a positive but realistic manner, then the value in the multiple may be supported or the case for an increasing adjusted profit basis be justified.

 

Specialist insights and detailed analysis

A financial forecast always starts with a deep understanding of how finances work for your business. This includes a drill-down analysis of cashflows, incoming revenue streams, debts, potential threats, and market shifts, to name just a few. At the most basic level, a financial forecast predicts the state of your business finances. This gives you the opportunity to measure actual progress and anticipate potential problems before they arise. As a result, forecasts help you identify, set, and hopefully meet your most important business goals.

This is especially relevant for businesses undergoing significant structural changes or experiencing rapid growth. These elements have a huge impact on future cashflows and the overall financial performance of your business. Crucially, you should always be aware of the different factors that influence your future cashflows, even when business is booming. The importance of managing cash and debt should never be understated in a business as this is why businesses fail and not necessarily a lack of profits. Capturing the business knowledge and enthusiasm into a professional framework delivers a very powerful commercial document.

 

Observe, adjust, and analyse

Setting a financial forecast is difficult, especially because elements of your business finances can change overnight. Furthermore, your forecast must consider external factors, as well as internal ones.

Financial Forecasting is also difficult for newly established businesses, or for those that don’t have accurate financial analysis frameworks in place. As a result, constant adjustments and an awareness of changing dynamics is just as important as creating the forecast in the first place.

 

Investing in your business future

A good financial forecast is not just an investment in the longevity of your business. It’s also a sign that you’re approaching your finances from the right perspective. Understanding the various elements that impact your business is vital if you are to make the right decisions and investments. Following a hunch, relying on guesswork or taking a gamble with your business simply isn’t a good option.

 

Budgets and Forecasts

The key difference between a budget and a forecast is that a budget lays out the plan for what a business wants to achieve, while a forecast states its actual expectations for results, usually in a much more summarised format.

In essence, a budget is a quantified expectation for what a business wants to achieve. Its characteristics are:

·      The budget is a detailed representation of the future results, financial position, and cash flows that management wants the business to achieve during a certain period of time.

·      The budget may only be updated once a year, depending on how frequently senior management wants to revise information.

·      The budget is compared to actual results to determine variances from expected performance.

·      Management takes remedial steps to bring actual results back into line with the budget.

Conversely, a forecast is an estimate of what will actually be achieved. Its characteristics are:

·      The forecast is typically limited to major revenue and expense line items. There is usually no forecast for financial position, though cash flows may be forecasted.

·      The forecast can be updated at regular intervals, perhaps monthly or quarterly.

·      The forecast may be used for short-term operational considerations, such as adjustments to staffing, stock levels, and investment impacts.

·      There is no variance analysis that compares the forecast to actual results, although this may be done retrospectively to improve forecasts going forward.

 

Thus, the key difference between a budget and a forecast is that the budget is a plan for where a business wants to go, while a forecast is the indication of where it is actually going.

 

Realistically, the more useful of these tools is the forecast, for it gives a short-term representation of the actual circumstances in which a business finds itself. The information in a forecast can be used to take immediate action. A budget, on the other hand, may contain targets that are simply not achievable, or for which market circumstances have changed so much that it is not wise to attempt to achieve. If a budget is to be used, it should at least be updated more frequently than once a year, so that it bears some relationship to current market realities.

In short, a business always needs a forecast to reveal its current direction, while the use of a budget is not always necessary.

 

Phil Talbot is a Chartered Accountant and a Director of PJT Consultancy Services Ltd based in Shrewsbury in the West Midlands. He previously was the CFO for one of the largest providers of Social Care in the UK. He is now working independently to help and support businesses who require the services of a part time /short-term Finance Director or a Non-Executive Director. A feature of this is to design and develop financial models for businesses that form the cornerstone of business plans.

If you are interested in the development of Business Models and Business Plans please email phil.talbot@pjtconsultancy.co.uk or phone 07967 640082


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